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THESIS: STATISTICAL RESEARCH ON VIETNAM’S ECONOMIC STRUCTURE IN THE PERIOD OF 1986-2012
Major:Economics (Economic Statistics) Number Code:62310101
Doctoral Candidate: Trần Thị Thanh Hương
Academic Supervisor: Professor PhD Phan Công Nghĩa

Academic and theoretical Contributions

The thesis has provided System of statistical indicators on economic structure, including 9 groups: structure of GDP by economic sector, structure of capital investment by economic sector, structure of labor by economic sector, structure of GDP by type of ownership, structure of capital investment by type of ownership, structure of labor by type of ownership, structure of GDP by region, structure of capital investment by region, structure of labor by region. Currently, in Vietnam, there has not yet been an independent system of statistical indicators on economic structures nor research suggesting completely on types of economic structure based on classification criteria and by the criteria of being a basis for calculation.

This thesis has built up a model assessing the effect of changes in the structure of labor by economic sectors on the proportion of added value in non-agricultural sector, using data panel regression. This also provided a model assessing the effects of change in the structure of labor and the structure of investment of three classification criteria (by economic sector, type of ownership and region) on the growth of social labor productivity, the effective use of capital investment and GDP with index method; building the model accessing the effect of changes in the structure of labor by economic sector on GDP per capita by using panel data regression.

This thesis also has supplemented a model assessing the impacts of economy restructuring by input indicators (the structure of labor) on GDP. Besides, the model has also added two factors: labor productivity of construction industries and of service sectors. In the past, there were several researchers (Nguyen Thi Minh (2008); Nguyen ThiLan Huong (2012)) providing models assessing the impacts of economy restructuring based on output indicator (GDP composition) on GDP.

Conclusions and recommendations from the research results

This thesis analyzed the processes of economy restructuring in Vietnam by economic sectors, types of ownership and region, andby both input and output indicators (labor, capital investment and GDP). The analytical results has shown that, according to classification criteria, structure by economic sectors was the most significant and effective effect while calculation indicators criteria was the most significant and effective one (structure of GDP). 

This thesis has quantified the impacts of the labor proportion of construction industries and service sectors on the rate of added value of non-agricultural sector by using panel data regression. The estimation result has shown that: the proportions of labor in 2 sectors of industry and service have positive effect on the rate of added value of non-agricultural sector, in which the figure of service sector is more significant than this of construction industries sector. This thesis has also quantified the impacts of labor restructuring and capital investment restructuring by economic sector, type of ownership and region on the growth rate of social labor productivity, the effective use of capital investment and GDP with index method. Calculation results have shown that labor restructuring in three classification criteria had positive effects on the social labor productivity,GDP and the capital investment restructuring has negative effects on the effective uses of capital investment and GDP in Vietnam. This thesis also quantified the impacts of labor restructuring by economic sector on GDP and GDP per capita by using panel data regression The estimation results has shown that in Vietnam, the labor proportion of construction industries and service sectors had positive effects on GDP and GDP per capita, and the proportion of labor of service sector is more significant. The labor productivity of two sectors also had positive effects on GDP and GDP per capita, and the impacts of service sector were also more significant. 

This thesis also has provided prospects on Vietnam economy structures: By 2020, the proportion of added value of construction industries and service could reach to 83.17%. Therefore, in order to achieve the target of the Party and the government by 2020, the proportion of construction industries and service should dominate about 85% in GDP. All kinds of economic activities need to improve constantly their strengths to boost the economy restructuring positively. 

In addition, in order to ensure the data used in analyzing economy structure and economy restructuring by region, General Statistic Office need to disclose earlier the information on capital investment, labor and GDP of each province by economy sectors and type of ownership; and in order to ensure the date used in analyzing structure and economy restructuring in each kinds of economic activity, General Statistic Office also need to disclose earlier the information on the added value, capital investment and labor and more details to level 2 and level 3.

Last but not least, General Statistic Office should guarantee the consistency and uniform to classify indicators of economy restructuring, including indicators on capital investment, labor and GDP need to detail in the same level (with kinds of economic activity detailed to level 1 and level 2, with type of ownership divided into 5 components).